Barack Obama is going to stand side-by-side China in the fight against climate change, for better and for worse. The two largest economies on the planet, which are also the worst polluters, are staring each other in the eyes and asking: “so, are you going to go? Because if you go, I will too; but if you don’t, I’m staying right where I am”. The easiest option could have been to say “I’m staying put”, but there are more and more people watching their every move, and they know it. They are also aware that the grand majority of these people expect another answer: “We’ll all go together”.
Obama is going, with a plan to cut emissions by 17% under his arm and confident that a commitment can be reached that can be converted into a binding agreement next year. Meanwhile, the Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, will also travel to Copenhagen with a proposal to limit emissions by between 40 and 45% in 2020. Nevertheless, one cannot see this as a reduction, since what China proposes is to emit 45% less carbon dioxide for each point of GDP than it currently emits.
Despite this caveat, the news is an enormous step forward, which International Energy Agency chief, Faith Birol says, “will save 25% of all the carbon dioxide that the world will have to stop emitting by 2020 to tackle warming”. Ban Ki-Moon, UN Secretary General, sees no alternative. “World leaders see the issue of global warming and excessive contamination as very urgent. Three years ago it was not on any international agenda, but now we recognise it as a priority: public enemy number one. I want us to be prepared in December and for a strong agreement to be signed,” he said.
Good and bad news
The good news is that David Robinson, researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and partner of the consultancy firm, The Brattle Group says: “I believe that the US will pass legislation to tackle climate change in 2010". The bad news is that, “this legislation will be tame”. According to Robinson, it would be a mistake to expect the US, even with Obama as president, to lead the process. “Some analysts consider that climate change is only the US’s sixth priority after other matters such as health and the recession. The Senate will not make a decision on this before May”. By then, the first steps in the process to elect 36 of the 100 seats in the Senate in November 2010 will have been taken and the position each representative wants to take in relation to climate change will already be known.
The British consultant sees the situation as follows: “the carbon sector is most averse to taking steps to tackle climate change. However, this sector is aware that the alternative to climate change legislation is that the US Environmental Protection Agency takes control of these companies and is much stricter than any legislation". Indeed, democrats and republicans are currently debating climate legislation and it appears that a very weak agreement will be reached, setting a very low price per tonne of carbon.
“The Americans put forward a fundamental argument: if the Chinese do not have any climate commitment, then we neither. In any event, the signs are that this legislation will be approved next year; however, I do not believe that the emission reduction objectives will be higher than 4% compared to 1990 (the Senate is examining reductions of 17% compared to 2005 levels, which would equate, after adjustment, to a 6% cut on 1990 levels)”.
Robinson is convinced that, “the US will push hard to develop renewables and smart grids, but that China will take more initiative. I believe that to convince the Americans, one must criticise them more and insist further on what they have to win and of the opportunities of this new energy model”.
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