The UK could have an affordable and sustainable power system by taking ambitious action to reduce its demand for electricity, providing stable investment certainty for the renewables industry and moving towards greater interconnection with Europe, says the environmental group, World Wildlife Fund (WWF).
The WWF report, Positive Energy, has found that with a strong focus on renewable energy and energy efficiency, it is possible to largely decarbonise the UK power sector and maintain system security without resorting to new nuclear power. The report, based on modelling by GL Garrad Hassan (GL GH), developed six scenarios for the UK’s electricity system in 2030. The scenarios, which differ according to the level of electricity demand and the use of different methods for providing system security – ensuring that there is no risk of ‘the lights going out’ – all achieve the near decarbonisation of the power sector by 2030, as recommended by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
More interconnection, higher renewables
WWF is also calling for better interconnection and market integration with Europe; if this happens, the report’s most ambitious scenarios show that renewables could meet almost 90% of UK electricity demand by 2030. This would create a springboard for the UK to become a net exporter of clean energy to the rest of Europe.
High levels of interconnection would also mean that much less new gas-fired capacity would be needed in the UK to ensure system security thus reducing costs and the amount of infrastructure needing to be built. WWF warned against over-reliance on gas, as this risks a ‘lock-in’ to high-carbon infrastructure, which would undermine efforts to reduce emissions and increase reliance on imported and costly fossil fuels.
Commenting on the report, David Nussbaum, chief executive of WWF-UK, said: “This report is inspiring, but also entirely realistic. It shows that a clean, renewable energy future really is within our grasp. If we seize this opportunity, it will lay the foundations for a clean industrial revolution in the UK, with all the jobs and export opportunities that brings, as well as being a major step forward in tackling climate change.
“Investing in clean energy therefore offers us a means to tackle the two most crucial market failures that now confront the world – the financial crisis and climate change. The only question that remains is, are we bold enough to take it?” Energy efficiency & capital costs
The report also found that strong support for renewables now can significantly reduce their costs in the future. It concludes that a strong renewable energy target for 2030 and stable financial support mechanisms are key to substantially reducing the cost of renewable energy for the UK, building a strong platform for investment and maximising employment opportunities from this new industrial sector.
In addition, Positive Energy found that affordability and sustainability can work hand in hand, with energy efficiency measures massively reducing costs for consumers. The report shows that ambitious action on energy efficiency could reduce the capital costs of generation and interconnection by up to £40bn by 2030 and that a concerted drive to reduce energy demand in households has the potential to more than offset the costs of meeting renewable energy goals.
Investor certainty critical
WWF also argued that the government needs to provide the level of certainty for investors willing to make large-scale investment in the UK renewables supply chain by making a greater long-term commitment to a target of at least 60% renewables in the UK’s energy mix by 2030. The report also said there was a need for stable market arrangements which provide long-term revenue certainty to reduce risk and mobilise capital investment in renewables.
“Harnessing UK renewables potential will help to reduce the volatility of UK consumer bills, as they won’t be at the mercy of fossil fuel price fluctuations, which have driven the majority of price rises in recent years. Examples from other countries, as well as industry projections, show that renewable energy could also create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the UK,” said Nussbaum. “Failure to commit to a high-renewables future would leave us facing the prospect of dangerous levels of climate change and high energy prices. The opportunity offered by the clean energy revolution is one that we cannot afford to miss.”
The report's findings on the potential of renewable electricity are far more ambitious than those put forward by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in its Renewable Energy Review in May and by several other studies by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC).
However, renewable build rates in the WWF scenarios to 2020 are lower than the government’s own forecasts contained in its National Renewable Energy Action Plan and significantly below industry projections on realistic build rates. The difference is that in WWF’s scenarios rather than build rates ‘falling off a cliff’ post 2020, growth is maintained providing long term opportunities for industrial growth.
Widespread support for ambitious target
The report has been welcomed by a range of organisations, including: Siemens; Unilever; Procter & Gamble; National Grid; Crown Estate; SSE; Triodos Bank; Renewable UK; Vestas; RSA; Renewable Energy Systems; Interface Flor; Ecotricity; Good Energy; Lark Energy; Carbon Trust; National Energy Action for Warm Homes; Consumer Focus; G Cube Insurance; Jeremy Leggett; Jonathan Porritt; Dimitri Zenghelis; Caroline Lucas MP; Alan Whitehead MP; Tessa Munt MP, Sir Graham Watson MEP, PRASEG; RSPB; Greenpeace; and Friends of the Earth and others.
Commenting on the report, James Vaccaro, UK Managing Director, Triodos Investment Mangement said: "We welcome the Positive Energy report from WWF/Garrad Hassan which adds weight to the massive contribution renewable energy can play in addressing energy security and environmental issues within the short-to-medium-term. We have long believed in the need to initiate a productive debate within the political sphere asking 'what is the most efficient way to transform the energy infrastructure to sustainable renewable energy - and what infrastructure is required to support this?”.
For his part, Anders Søe-Jensen, President of Vestas Offshore, a division of the world’s largest wind turbine manufacturer, added: “This report demystifies the concerns some people have about wind power. It shows that electricity prices have largely risen due to increases in gas prices, not increases in wind power and that high levels of wind power will shield consumers from volatile gas prices in future. It shows that the electricity network can cope with very high levels of wind, even in the harshest of winters. And perhaps most importantly it shows that wind can generate economic growth and jobs, much needed by the UK economy”.
“Climate change is accelerating even as the global economy is slowing. This could be a lethal combination here in the UK, where enthusiastic talk of “the green economy” has as yet achieved very little. This report from WWF shows exactly what needs to be done to counter that impasse – by moving forward purposefully, now to ensure that 60% of our electricity is generated from renewables by 2030.” Commented Jonathan Porritt, Founder Director of Forum for the Future.
The UK’s renewable trade association, RenewableUK, also showed its support for WWF, with the association’s Director of Policy, Dr Gordon Edge, saying “WWF are rightly calling on Government to provide the certainty needed to engender investment in renewable energy. I would urge Government to consider the contents of this report thoroughly”.
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