In the next decade renewables are set to double and coal power to halve - but seven countries will cause the EU to miss its emissions targets according to Ember.
Analysis by climate think tank Ember reveals the seven countries that are blocking Europe’s electricity transition. Together they will be responsible for 80 percent of the EU’s power sector emissions by 2030 due to their reliance on coal and fossil gas and insufficient deployment of zero-carbon electricity. As a result, the EU is not on track to deliver the Commission’s recommended 55 percent reduction in total emissions by 2030, let alone the EU Parliament’s target of 60 percent.
The analysis by Ember reviewed every EU country’s National Energy and Climate Plan, which sets out how each country expects to generate its electricity by 2030 as the EU moves towards net zero emissions by 2050.
The analysis reveals that renewables will double in the next decade to deliver 60 percent of EU electricity demand in 2030, driven largely by growth in wind and solar. Across the EU, 40 percent of electricity will be generated by wind and solar, with leading countries Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain targeting more than 60 percent.
Despite this progress, fossil fuels are still expected to generate 25 percent of EU electricity by 2030 and Europe is not on track for a Paris-aligned coal phase-out by 2030. Coal generation is expected to fall by just 53 percent by 2030 compared to 2018, with nearly all (~90 percent) of coal generation by 2030 occurring in Poland, Germany and Czechia. Fossil gas generation sees even less progress, with little change in the next decade, as countries including Italy, Germany and Belgium plan an increasing role for fossil gas.
“The 2020s are a key decade for action on climate change” said Charles Moore, Ember’s European Programme Lead. “Clean electricity is essential for the transition to a sustainable economy. Although our analysis finds that many EU countries already have ambitious plans to decarbonise their electricity systems, we also identified seven key countries that are blocking overall progress in the EU. Unless they change course, reaching a 55 percent emissions reduction will be extremely challenging - let alone 60 percent.”