Total generation capacity is expected to reach 223 GW by 2040, with 55 percent coming from solar alone. However, bottlenecks in the transmission system are creating critical constraints, with grid curtailment forecast to rise sharply to 2 TWh by 2030 and 4.4 TWh by 2035, according to Aurora.
This growing risk comes from both nation-wide and local structural imbalance. Looking at the country, around half of Italy’s electricity demand is concentrated in the North, while most renewable generation is located in the South. Local imbalances also put produce on grid: for instance, by 2060, Aurora projects that over 75 percent of solar growth in the South may be concentrated in the area of Foggia, while more than half of Sicilian wind growth will transit thorough critical nodes around Trapani, creating localised oversupply that the network cannot absorb.
Aurora concludes that Italy’s renewable assets face a significant risk in specific areas, especially in Southern regions, which investors need to account for. The report also highlights the role of grid upgrades in these high-risk areas curtailment risks in supporting the achievement of Italy’s renewable energy targets.
“In 2024, 338 GWh of renewable energy was curtailed in the Italian power system” said Maddalena Cerreto, Lead Expert, at Aurora Energy Research. “Despite upcoming flexibility investments and TSO-planned grid upgrades, our forecasting model that replicates the Italian power grid with TSO-level accuracy, indicate that renewable curtailment will continue to rise, increasing sixfold by 2030. Curtailment risk is highly localised, driven by bottlenecks that vary even within the same region. In some areas of Italy, renewable plants could lose up to 10 percent of annual revenues if this curtailed energy is not compensated. As such, despite curtailment risk assessment is complex, it is rapidly becoming a critical consideration in renewable energy investment decisions.”
The report “Italian Renewables Grid Curtailment Forecast August 2025” is available now for subscribers. Interested parties should get in touch with Aurora for further information.
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