Supported by their growing prominence in the energy transition, global renewable refinery production capacity for alternative fuels is forecast to increase from 11,716.0 million gallons per year (mmgy) in 2025 to 35,358.9 mmgy by 2030.
GlobalData’s Strategic Intelligence report, “Alternative Fuels in Energy Transition,” defines alternative fuels as transport fuels that do not originate from crude oil. The report focuses on biofuels, including renewable fuels like renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels, which can reduce lifecycle emissions across road, aviation, and marine transport.
“The transportation sector remains especially important for oil and gas companies because it accounted for 46 percent of global petroleum product demand in 2025, rising to 55 percent when international bunkers are included” said Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData. “As road vehicles, aircraft, and vessels cannot all transition away from liquid and gaseous fuels at the same pace, alternative fuels provide a practical route to lower emissions while maintaining fuel reliability, range, and operational flexibility.”
Biofuels offer the most immediate opportunity because they can be blended into existing fuel systems with limited infrastructure changes. Renewable diesel and SAF, both produced using biomass in a renewable refinery, lead the near-term pathways where drop-in compatibility matters. Over the longer term, low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels are expected to support hard-to-electrify sectors such as marine shipping and aviation.
The growth in global renewable refinery production capacity is expected to be driven by both active capacity additions and a growing pipeline of upcoming projects. Among the fuels produced in these refineries, renewable diesel is especially important because it can function as a drop-in diesel alternative for road freight, rail, and shipping. Its compatibility with existing diesel engines and fuel logistics makes it attractive to fleet operators to reduce emissions reductions without fully replacing their replacement.
For oil and gas companies, the opportunity spans refinery conversions, fuel trading, hydrogen and ammonia supply, fuels enabled by CCUS, and low-carbon fuel infrastructure. Existing downstream assets can be adapted to process waste oils, fats, greases, vegetable oils, and other biogenic feedstocks, while selected refineries can be converted into renewable diesel and SAF facilities.
“Alternative fuels require not only production assets but also resources for feedstock aggregation, certification, blending, logistics, offtake management, and customer relationships” added Mr Puranik. “Companies with established trading arms and retail networks can build low-carbon fuel portfolios across SAF, renewable diesel, renewable natural gas, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and eventually e-fuels. Competitive advantage is shifting from simple production capacity toward control of the full commercial chain.”
For additional information:
