Brazil is entering a new phase of power sector development as reforms to the electricity market, offshore wind regulation, and low-carbon hydrogen policy support investment in a more diversified renewable energy system. Solar PV growth, rising demand for grid flexibility, and a substantial offshore wind development pipeline are extending the country’s power sector beyond its traditional hydropower base, according to leading intelligence and productivity platform GlobalData.
Over this timeframe, renewable capacity share is forecast to rise from 48.0 percent to nearly 62 percent, while renewable electricity generation to approach 50 percent of the total matrix.
“Brazil has the resource base and investor interest to broaden its renewable power mix substantially” said Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData. “Solar PV will remain the principal near-term growth engine, while offshore wind represents a longer-term opportunity. The pace at which offshore projects progress will depend on clear rules for auctions, seabed leasing, environmental licensing, and grid access.”
In the near term, solar PV will be the primary engine of capacity additions, supported by deep permitting queues alongside projects under construction and financed. Onshore wind continues to expand across Brazil’s high-yield Northeast region, while natural gas capacity under construction provides critical flexible balancing to manage hydrological risk during dry periods.
“Solar PV is on track to surpass large hydropower as Brazil’s single largest power source in terms of installed capacity by 2035” added Mr Saibasan. “As variable generation expands rapidly across the Northeast and distributed solar penetrates distribution grids, expanding transmission corridors and reinforcing system reliability become urgent priorities. The 2025 Power Sector Reform Law supports this transition by gradually opening the free contracting market to all consumers and establishing a framework for grid-scale energy storage. Brazil enters the next decade with robust fundamentals: high-quality renewable resources, an expanding free power market, and significant investor appetite. Meeting long-term targets - such as cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 59 percent to 67 percent by 2035 - will require synchronised execution across grid expansion, licensing approvals, and regulatory certainty for storage and offshore wind to ensure the matrix remains clean, secure, and affordable.”
Investment activity reflects the evolving priorities. Brazil’s power sector is forecast to attract close to $93 billion in new capital investment between 2026 and 2030, with solar PV securing approximately 58 percent of total expenditure, followed by onshore wind and natural gas. Furthermore, the enactment of the Low Carbon Hydrogen Framework positions Brazil to utilise its low-cost renewable power for domestic industrial decarbonisation and clean fuel exports.
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