Guidehouse Insights estimates global e-fuel demand will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 79 percent through 2031

According to a new report from Guidehouse Insights, global synfuel demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78.5 percent, from 1,200 BPD in 2022 to 228,000 BPD in 2031.  
Guidehouse Insights estimates global e-fuel demand will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 79 percent through 2031
Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Synthetic fuel has been around for almost 100 years, but next-generation synfuels - otherwise known as electrofuels, or e-fuels - present a unique opportunity to decarbonise the transportation sector. Global demand for e-fuel for shipping is expected to see the fastest growth of a CAGR of more than 90 percent and will likely outpace road needs by 2023.

“The right policy and market signals could increase investment in synfuel production facilities, lower costs, and hasten uptake in synfuel consumption” said Peter Marrin, senior research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “Such signals could include favorable government policies such as blending mandates, monetary support from private investors to expedite early projects, and additional R&D grants to unlock technological advancements, learning rates, and economies of scale through 2030.”

Several factors will likely constrict e-fuel supply around the world through 2030, the most noteworthy of which are high CAPEX and OPEX compared to conventional fuels and competing transportation technologies. E-fuel production involves several energy-intensive steps that involve new technologies including water electrolysis to make green hydrogen and direct air capture to grab CO2 from the ambient air, according to the report.

The report, Renewable Synfuels Production and Utilisation Market, focuses on e-fuel consumption and industry revenue. E-fuels in this report refer to e-methanol and all products derived from e-crude, but not e-ammonia, liquid hydrogen, or biofuels. The analysis is broken down by three key transportation applications: road transport, shipping, and aviation. This report focuses primarily on the specifics of demand and revenue for these three end-user applications. Analyses are provided for five global regions and cover 2022-2031. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Insights website.

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