The growth is powered by solar PV, while renewables’ expansion is taking place in a context of supply chain strains, grid integration challenges, financial pressures and policy shifts.
Renewables 2025, the IEA’s main annual report on the sector, sees global renewable power capacity increasing by 4,600 gigawatts by 2030 — roughly the equivalent of adding China, the European Union and Japan’s total power generation capacity combined.
According to the report, solar PV will account for around 80% of the global increase in renewable power capacity over the next five years followed by wind, hydro, bioenergy and geothermal.
Geothermal installations are on course to hit historic highs in the United States while rising grid integration challenges are renewing interest in pumped-storage hydropower, whose growth is expected to be almost 80% faster over the next five years compared with the previous five.
India is on course to become the second-largest renewables growth market globally, after China, and is expected to comfortably reach its ambitious target by 2030.
At the company level, confidence in renewables remains strong. Most major developers have either maintained or raised their 2030 deployment targets compared with last year, reflecting resilience and optimism in the sector. Offshore wind stands apart, however, with a weaker growth outlook – around a quarter lower than in last year’s report – resulting from policy changes in key markets, supply chain bottlenecks and rising costs.
“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV – but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” said Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement on the IEA website. “Solar PV is on course to account for some 80% of the increase in the world’s renewable capacity over the next five years. As renewables’ role in electricity systems rises in many countries, policy makers need to play close attention to supply chain security and grid integration challenges.”
Solar PV is expected to dominate renewables’ growth between now and 2030, remaining the lowest-cost option for new generation in most countries, while wind power, despite its near-term challenges, is still set for considerable expansion as supply bottlenecks ease and projects move forward, notably in China, Europe and India. Hydropower and other renewable technologies will continue to play important roles in supporting electricity systems and enhancing flexibility.
Global supply chains for solar PV and rare earth elements used in wind turbines remain heavily concentrated in China, underscoring ongoing risks to supply chain security.
At the same time, the rapid rise of variable renewables is placing increasing pressure on electricity systems. Curtailment and negative price events are already appearing in more markets, signaling the need for urgent investment in grids, storage and flexible generation. Several countries are beginning to respond with new capacity and storage auctions, but much more will be needed to ensure that variable renewables are integrated in a cost-efficient and secure way.
