If the quota of 500 MW of photovoltaic capacity established by legislation (as set out by the Spanish government in Royal Decree 1578/2008) is not installed per annum, the country would loss €4.98 billion by 2020 and about 40,000 permanent jobs, based on the assumption that solar energy is replaced by gas-fired power stations.
The report entitled "The macroeconomic impact of the disappearance of the PV market in Spain” presents a cost-benefit analysis taking into account the premiums offered for electricity generated using solar PV systems, the savings made on energy imports and emissions trading, taxes and duties, National Insurance contributions, and the lower transmission and distribution losses.
The report indicates that any subsequent reduction in feed-in tariffs for PV plus high development costs will not enable ground-based facilities to remain profitable and therefore, this market segment will disappear until PV system prices fall proportionately.
ASIF explains that: "the report does not quantify the net positive effect that the arrival of grid parity and the introduction of self-consumption would have on the country. Neither does it quantify the effect of declining electricity pool prices due to the supply of PV at no cost during peak midday demand or the expected rising oil prices over the next decade”.
If the photovoltaic market increases by 1,000 MW or 1,500 MW per annum until 2020, the country would enjoy an even more positive balance than if only the planned 500 MW of capacity is rolled out each year, valued at €9,39 billion and €13,80 billion, respectively.
The Spanish PV market has been paralysed "by regulation and uncertainty for over two years," says ASIF. According to data from the association, in 2009 the Spanish PV sector lost 90% of temporary employment and 30% of permanent employment, representing around 30,000 jobs in total. During 2010, the situation has worsened. According to ASIF, "the sector is starting to break apart and only those companies and activities connected with export markets are managing to survive".
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